Probability · Calculator · 5 min

Binomial probability

Find the chance of exactly, at most, or at least a chosen number of successes in repeated trials.

06/ 08
Make it your own
%

Change a value. See what changes.

What happensLive calculation

The idea to keep

The middle outcomes can be much more likely because there are more ways for them to happen.

01 / The explanation

What is going on?

A binomial model counts successes across a fixed number of independent trials with the same success probability. Success can mean anything you define: a heads result, a correct answer, or an item passing a check. The combination term counts how many trial sequences produce k successes.

P(X = k) = C(n,k) pᵏ(1 − p)ⁿ⁻ᵏ
02 / Step by step

Work through it

  1. Choose the number of trials and the chance of success on each trial.
  2. Choose the target number of successes, from zero to the number of trials.
  3. Compare the exact probability with the cumulative probabilities shown beneath it.
03 / A worked example

Put numbers to the idea

For 10 fair coin flips, the chance of exactly 5 heads is C(10,5) × 0.5¹⁰ = 252 / 1024 ≈ 24.61%. A specific sequence of 5 heads and 5 tails has only a 1 / 1024 chance; there are 252 such sequences.

04 / Common questions

A little more clarity

What is the difference between exact and cumulative probability?

Exact means X equals k. At most adds probabilities from zero through k; at least adds from k through n.

Can success probability be zero or one?

Yes. At zero, all probability is at zero successes. At one, all probability is at n successes.

What are the mean and standard deviation?

The mean is np and the standard deviation is √[np(1 − p)]. They describe the center and spread of the distribution.